A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
